So let's examine some of the claims made by the vaguely hyperbolic article in The Inquirer around this topic:
Claim 1: Dell is selling PCs with Windows XP installed.
Obsevation1 :I don't think they ever stopped. Just because you can buy a Dell Precision 690 with either Vista or XP preloaded doesn't mean Vista has failed. It just means it takes a while for enterprises to migrate. And while they're thinking about migrating, they still need to provision new PCs with the operating system they're currently using.
Claim 2: Microsoft is selling a $3 bundled license of XP for the Chinese market.
Observation 2: Getting the Chinese to pay anything for software is a major step forward. This sort of pricepoint helps the Chinese to "get legal" at a price awfully close to free. It probably won't help, but it sure can't hurt.
We're a long way away from being able to determine whether Vista is a success or failure. All I can say is that it's no Wii.